In 2024, Gartner made a bold prediction: by 2026, search engine volume would drop 25% as people switched to AI chatbots. It's 2026. Here's what the original data says, our verdict, and what it means for businesses that rely on search for enquiries.
Partly. Gartner predicted in February 2024 that traditional search volume would drop 25% by 2026. There's no public figure to confirm that, and Google says total queries hit an all-time high in 2026. But the substance came true: when Google shows an AI summary, clicks to websites nearly halve (Pew Research), AI Mode has passed one billion monthly users, and 45% of consumers now use AI tools for local recommendations. Plan for fewer clicks and make content the answer.
- Gartner predicted in February 2024 that traditional search volume would fall 25% by 2026.
- Google reports record search queries in 2026 and over one billion monthly AI Mode users, so total searching didn't shrink.
- Clicks did fall: 8% of visits with an AI summary versus 15% without (Pew Research, 2025).
- 45% of consumers now use AI tools for local recommendations, up from 6% (BrightLocal, 2026).
- Our verdict: the headline number is unproven, but the shift Gartner described is real. Measure enquiries, not just traffic.
What exactly did Gartner predict?
In February 2024, Gartner predicted that by 2026, traditional search engine volume would drop 25%, with search marketing losing market share to AI chatbots and other virtual agents (Gartner, Feb 2024). It was a prediction about where people would go to find answers, and it got a lot of attention from businesses that rely on Google for leads.
It's now late 2026. So, was Gartner right?
The honest answer: it depends what you measure
There's no clean public number for "traditional search volume". Search engines don't publish comparable totals, and third-party estimates vary widely. Anyone quoting a precise final figure is guessing. But there's enough original data to see what actually happened.
Search itself didn't shrink
Google says overall search queries reached an all-time high in early 2026, and that AI Mode, its conversational search, passed one billion monthly users about a year after launch, with queries more than doubling every quarter (Google, May 2026). People didn't stop searching. A growing share of their searching happens inside AI experiences.
But clicks did fall
Pew Research Center's analysis of 900 US adults' browsing in March 2025 found that when Google showed an AI summary, users clicked a traditional result in 8% of visits, compared with 15% without one. Links inside the summary were clicked in just 1% of visits (Pew Research, July 2025). So even when the search happens, the visit to your website is less likely.
And AI assistants became a real starting point
BrightLocal's 2026 survey found 45% of US consumers used AI tools like ChatGPT for local business recommendations, up from 6% a year earlier (BrightLocal, 2026). That's exactly the shift Gartner described: people asking an AI agent instead of scrolling search results.
Search in 2026: what changed
Our verdict
Gartner's headline number is hard to verify, and Google's own figures suggest total searching grew rather than fell. But the substance of the prediction, that AI would take a big share of the job search engines used to do and that search marketing would lose ground, has largely come true. For a business, the practical outcome is the same: the click is no longer guaranteed.
| What Gartner said | What the data shows | Verdict |
|---|---|---|
| Traditional search volume falls 25% by 2026 | No public figure; Google reports record query volume | Not supported, as far as public data shows |
| Search marketing loses share to AI agents | AI Mode over 1 billion users; AI summaries cut clicks nearly in half | Largely right |
| People turn to chatbots and virtual agents | 45% use AI tools for local recommendations | Right, and faster than many expected |
What this means in India
India is in the middle of this shift. In October 2025, Google added seven Indian languages to AI Mode, including Telugu, Kannada, Tamil, Malayalam, Marathi and Bengali, and said India is its largest user base worldwide for voice and visual search (Google India, Oct 2025). Customers in Hyderabad and Bengaluru are increasingly asking full questions, by voice and in their own language, and getting full answers.
For businesses that depend on search for enquiries, especially clinics, colleges, coaching institutes and builders, that changes what good content looks like.
What to do about it
1. Track what still drives enquiries, not just traffic
Traffic from simple informational pages will keep falling. That's fine if enquiries hold up. Measure organic enquiries by landing page, and judge content on whether it brings customers. Our post on reporting revenue instead of reach shows how.
2. Write to be the answer
Google says there are no special requirements to appear in AI Overviews or AI Mode: pages need to be indexed and eligible for a snippet, with helpful, people-first content and structured data that matches what's on the page (Google Search Central). In practice: a direct answer first, real questions as headings, FAQs and cited sources. The details are in Google's AI summaries nearly halve clicks.
3. Be consistent everywhere AI looks
AI assistants build recommendations from your listings, reviews and website. Make sure your details match across all of them. See Google isn't the only review site that matters and how to get AI to recommend your business.
4. Build demand for your name
Brand searches hold up best, because the person already wants you. Reviews, word of mouth, content people share and consistent visibility on social media all grow them.
5. Don't put all your enquiries on one channel
If most of your leads come from Google, diversify: WhatsApp, referrals, partnerships, events and owned audiences you can reach directly. And if your paid search costs keep rising, read Paid media takes 30.6% of budgets and buys less every year.
A Hyderabad coaching institute sees website visits fall by a third over a year, mostly on blog posts like "What is the CAT exam pattern?". Enquiries, though, stay flat, because the pages that bring enquiries, course fees, batch timings and results, still get clicked.
Instead of chasing lost traffic, the team rewrites its course pages answer-first, adds a short counsellor video to each, and cleans up its listings on Google and education portals. Visits stay lower; enquiries rise.
Whatever the exact number turns out to be, the lesson holds: plan for fewer clicks, and make every one count.
How Ad Asthra helps you adapt to AI search
We help you build content, listings and reporting that bring enquiries as search changes.
Frequently asked questions
What did Gartner predict about search?
In February 2024, Gartner predicted that traditional search engine volume would drop 25% by 2026, with search marketing losing share to AI chatbots and other virtual agents.
Did search volume actually fall by 25%?
There's no public data to confirm it. Search engines don't publish comparable totals, and Google says overall queries reached an all-time high in 2026. What fell is clicks to websites when AI summaries appear.
How much have AI summaries reduced clicks?
Pew Research found users clicked a traditional search result in 8% of visits when Google showed an AI summary, against 15% when it didn't, and clicked links inside the summary in just 1% of visits.
Are people using ChatGPT instead of Google?
Alongside it, increasingly. BrightLocal found 45% of US consumers used AI tools like ChatGPT for local recommendations in 2026, up from 6% in 2025. Google's own AI Mode passed one billion monthly users.
Is SEO still worth investing in?
Yes, but judge it on enquiries, not traffic. Answer-first pages, clear FAQs, consistent listings and brand building still bring customers, even as simple informational searches send fewer clicks.
What should Indian businesses do about AI search?
Measure organic enquiries by page, write content that directly answers real questions, keep listings and details consistent across sites, build brand searches, and avoid relying on a single channel for leads.
How does Ad Asthra help businesses with AI search?
We build in-house content and search capability that produces answer-first pages, keeps listings consistent and reports enquiries by page, and hand the team and playbook over to you through BOT.
Sources
- Gartner Predicts Search Engine Volume Will Drop 25% by 2026, Due to AI Chatbots and Other Virtual Agents, Gartner, 19 February 2024
- Google Search's I/O 2026 updates, Google, 19 May 2026
- Google users are less likely to click on links when an AI summary appears in the results, Pew Research Center, 22 July 2025
- Local Consumer Review Survey 2026, BrightLocal, 11 February 2026
- Supercharging Search for India: New languages in AI Mode and Search Live debuts, Google India, 8 October 2025
- AI features and your website, Google Search Central
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